Our company specializes primarily in the global export and sales of aluminum foil. We hope that my personal assessment will assist you in understanding the market dynamics of China’s aluminum foil industry, thereby enabling you to place orders at the optimal time to secure better profit margins.
For 2026, Yutwin New Materials offers the following assessment of the aluminum foil market.
01. Aluminum Ingot Prices
In 2026, aluminum ingot prices are expected to experience heightened volatility. We forecast that SMM aluminum ingot prices will fluctuate within a wide range of 23,000–28,000, while LME prices will fluctuate between US$3,200 and US$4,000. The primary drivers behind this volatility include rising electricity costs; China’s aluminum production capacity reaching a critical threshold of 45 million tons; and the conflict in the Middle East, which has led to production stoppages or reductions at certain facilities, as well as a surge in oil and natural gas prices. In 2026, LME prices are projected to remain consistently higher than SMM prices over the long term; this trend favors Chinese enterprises by enhancing their price competitiveness in the global market, though it presents a short-term bearish outlook for aluminum ingot imports. The average price for the second quarter is projected to hover around RMB 24,000. By the third or fourth quarter, the average price is expected to shift upward to approximately RMB 25,000, with LME prices potentially reaching US$ 4,000 per ton.
02. Processing Fees
Processing fees for household foil remain stable at approximately RMB 4,200–4,400 per ton.
Processing fees for composite foil (10–25 microns) range from approximately RMB 4,500 to RMB 5,000 per ton.
Driven by the new energy vehicle sector, demand for battery foil in China has surged. Consequently, some manufacturers have ceased producing standard ultra-thin aluminum foil—reallocating their production capacity to the more profitable battery foil segment. As a result, processing fees for ultra-thin aluminum foil (0.006–0.007 mm) currently stand at approximately RMB 6,000–6,500 per ton. These fees are expected to continue rising in the future, with the full-year average processing fee projected to reach RMB 7,000 per ton (US$ 1,000 per ton).
| Aluminum Foil Category | 2026 Annual Average Price Range (USD/MT, FOB) | YoY Increase vs 2025 | Core Price Driver Logic |
|---|---|---|---|
| High-end Battery Foil / Electronic Foil | 5,000–6,000 USD+ | 8%–15% | Booming new energy demand, high supply barriers, continuously widening supply-demand gap, steady increase in processing premiums, extremely strong cost pass-through capability |
| Ultra-thin Pharmaceutical Foil / High-end Food Foil | 4,700–5,000 USD | 5%–10% | Upgraded pharmaceutical packaging, stricter regulatory thresholds, rising concentration among leading enterprises, stable processing premium, strong rigid demand resilience |
| Mid-range Air Conditioner Foil / General Packaging Foil | 4,400–4,700 USD | 3%–6% | Relatively balanced supply and demand, prices fully track aluminum ingot fluctuations, slight price hikes in peak seasons, volume-first concessions in off-seasons, generally flat processing fees |
| Low-end Food Container Foil / Household Foil | 4,100–4,400 USD | 1%–3% | Overcapacity, fierce homogeneous competition, weak pricing power, passive price increases only in line with aluminum ingot costs, continuous pressure on processing fees |
04. Exchange Rates
Since the beginning of 2026, the continuous depreciation of the US dollar has driven an appreciation of the RMB, thereby pushing up settlement prices denominated in US dollars. It is projected that the US Federal Reserve will implement another 1–2 interest rate cuts in 2026, potentially driving the RMB exchange rate into the 6.7 range. Where feasible, we recommend settling transactions in RMB or signing a Proforma Invoice (PI) to lock in rates; alternatively, our company can also provide quotations and settle payments in local currencies.
04. Sea Freight Rates
Due to the conflict in the Middle East, sea freight rates in the Red Sea region have surged rapidly, with prices currently hovering between $2,500 and $4,000 per 20-foot container (20GP). Should the conflict conclude, these rates are expected to recede. We recommend that clients opt for FOB pricing terms and consult us regarding current sea freight rates prior to shipment.
Summary
Aluminum ingot prices are projected to continue their upward trend throughout 2026. We recommend placing orders when prices are in the vicinity of RMB 24,000 (SMM) or USD 3,500 (LME). For 6–7 micron aluminum foil—a segment impacted by capacity constraints—processing fees are expected to continue rising; however, compared to other nations, Chinese aluminum foil offers superior quality stability and distinct price advantages. In short: place your orders as early as possible to lock in your prices!
Learn more about our aluminum foil materials. GO!
Please contact us for inquiries!
